A VAR Model of Stimulating Economic Growth in the Guangdong Province, P.R. China

서지정보

ㆍ발행기관 : 한국유통과학회 ㆍ수록지정보 : The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business / 2권 / 2호
ㆍ저자명 : Jaime Ortiz, Jingwen Xia, Haibo Wang

목차

Abstract
1. Introduction
2. The Economy of Guangdong Province in China
3. Variable Selection and Data Sources
4. Empirical Model
Co-integration Tests
Granger Causality Tests
Variance Decomposition
5. Conclusion
References

영어 초록

The authors calculate the long-term predictability of GDP, domestic demand, investment, and net exports for Guangdong province, P.R. China from 2000 to 2013. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model with quarterly data for this period is first co-integrated then the Granger causality test is applied to empirically assess the relationships among gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, investment, and net exports. There is a strong causality effect between investment and net exports in Guangdong province. However, the variance decomposition results indicate that exports respond to foreign shocks rather than domestic ones, making their impact on the Guangdong economy to predict. Results show the stimulating effect of domestic demand on GDP is larger than the stimulating effect of net exports and much larger than even the stimulating effect of investment. The analysis suggests that there are dynamic influences with various levels of persistence between GDP, consumption, investment, and net exports. Macroeconomic policy adjustments are urgently required to expand domestic demand and thereby stimulate economic growth in Guangdong province.

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