장래교통수요예측을 고려한 도로 유지관리 방안
* 본 문서는 배포용으로 복사 및 편집이 불가합니다.
서지정보
ㆍ발행기관 : 한국도로학회
ㆍ수록지정보 : 한국도로학회논문집 / 18권 / 3호
ㆍ저자명 : 김정민, 최승현, 도명식, 한대석
ㆍ저자명 : 김정민, 최승현, 도명식, 한대석
영어 초록
PURPOSES : This study aims to examine the differences between the existing traffic demand forecasting method and the traffic demand forecasting method considering future regional development plans and new road construction and expansion plans using a four-step traffic demand forecast for a more objective and sophisticated national highway maintenance. This study ultimately aims to present future pavement deterioration and budget forecasting planning based on the examination. METHODS: This study used the latest data offered by the Korea Transport Data Base (KTDB) as the basic data for demand forecast. The analysis scope was set using the Daejeon Metropolitan City’s O/D and network data. This study used a traffic demand program called TransCad, and performed a traffic assignment by vehicle type through the application of a user equilibrium-based multi-class assignment technique. This study forecasted future traffic demand by verifying whether or not a realistic traffic pattern was expressed similarly by undertaking a calibration process. This study performed a life cycle cost analysis based on traffic using the forecasted future demand or existing past pattern, or by assuming the constant traffic demand. The maintenance criteria were decided according to equivalent single axle loads (ESAL). The maintenance period in the concerned section was calculated in this study. This study also computed the maintenance costs using a construction method by applying the maintenance criteria considering the ESAL. The road user costs were calculated by using the user cost calculation logic applied to the Korean Pavement Management System, which is the existing study outcome. RESULTS : This study ascertained that the increase and decrease of traffic occurred in the concerned section according to the future development plans. Furthermore, there were differences from demand forecasting that did not consider the development plans. Realistic and accurate demand forecasting supported an optimized decision making that efficiently assigns maintenance costs, and can be used as very important basic information for maintenance decision making. CONCLUSIONS : Therefore, decision making for a more efficient and sophisticated road management than the method assuming future traffic can be expected to be the same as the existing pattern or steady traffic demand. The reflection of a reliable forecasting of the future traffic demand to life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) can be a very vital factor because many studies are generally performed without considering the future traffic demand or with an analysis through setting a scenario upon LCCA within a pavement management system.참고 자료
없음태그
"한국도로학회논문집"의 다른 논문
- GPC를 이용한 아스팔트 혼합물의 단기노화 조건에 따른 노화도 분석9페이지
- 1차로 전면차단 후 도로포장 보수방법의 효과분석 (김천~선산 사례중심)9페이지
- 시멘트 페이스트의 슬럼프 유동 모사를 위한 분석적 해의 검토12페이지
- 고속도로 노후 콘크리트 포장 보강의 경제성 분석 사례 연구13페이지
- 탄소섬유 쉬트를 활용한 도로 결빙방지 시스템 개발을 위한 기초연구7페이지
- 유리섬유 보강 아스팔트 혼합물의 현장 적용성 평가8페이지
- 장기간 현장조사를 통한 연속철근 콘크리트 포장의 균열간격과 균열폭 특성 분석12페이지
- 국내 다차로 고속도로 자료를 이용한 차로별 교통류 특성 분석8페이지
- 회전교차로와 신호교차로의 설치기준 지표 비교에 관한 연구13페이지
- 효율적인 교통량 조사를 계획하기 위한 조사구간의 통계적 특성 분류 연구6페이지