Strengthened Madden-Julian Oscillation Variability improved the 2020 Summer Rainfall Prediction in East Asia
(주)코리아스칼라
- 최초 등록일
- 2023.07.31
- 최종 저작일
- 2023.06
- 11페이지/ 어도비 PDF
- 가격 4,200원
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서지정보
ㆍ발행기관 : 한국지구과학회
ㆍ수록지정보 : 한국지구과학회지 / 44권 / 3호
ㆍ저자명 : Jieun Wie, Semin Yun, Jinhee Kang, Sang-Min Lee, Johan Lee, Baek-Jo Kim, Byung-Kwon Moon
목차
Introduction
Results
Conclusion
Acknowledgment
영어 초록
The prolonged and heavy East Asian summer precipitation in 2020 may have been caused by an enhanced Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which requires evaluation using forecast models. We examined the performance of GloSea6, an operational forecast model, in predicting the East Asian summer precipitation during July 2020, and investigated the role of MJO in the extreme rainfall event. Two experiments, CON and EXP, were conducted using different convection schemes, 6A and 5A, respectively to simulate various aspects of MJO. The EXP runs yielded stronger forecasts of East Asian precipitation for July 2020 than the CON runs, probably due to the prominent MJO realization in the former experiment. The stronger MJO created stronger moist southerly winds associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high, which led to increased precipitation. The strengthening of the MJO was found to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian summer precipitation. However, it is important to note that this study does not discuss the impact of changes in the convection scheme on the modulation of MJO. Further research is needed to understand other factors that could strengthen the MJO and improve the forecast.
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